From across the Pond

The Economist calls him the "second most important politician in America".

Who is he?

He's Tony Blair, the Prime Minister of Great Britain and an unwavering supporter of President Bush and the War in Iraq.

debate08 does not place Blair quite as high up on the US political totem poll as The Economist does, but agrees that Blair has been - and will continue to be - a crucial ally for Bush.

Blair's passionate and articulate words defending the rationale behind the War in Iraq are in the league of Churchill (particularly his acceptance speech to Congress in 2003 when he was presented with the Congressional Gold Medal).

Without doubt, there is no other politician in recent memory who has taken the kind of beating Blair has by the hands (and pens) of his own people. The British Press can be brutal, cutting political foes to the core with rhetoric that makes US journalists sound like cuddly teddy bears.

Through it all Blair has stood tall and faced them head-on. He's never wavered, not once. And for this he should be commended.

But unlike Bush, Blair must face voters one last time. British parliamentary law requires Blair to call an election by Summer 2006. Historically, however, PM's call elections a year or so early, when they feel most likely to win, and to avoid being forced to call an election when they don't want to.

May 2005 is the most likely time.

debate08 predicts Blair's re-election but it won't be pretty. The anti-war factions will be out in full force ... and then there's that British press.

Complicating matters will be the EU's Constitution vote (debate08 will talk more about this fascinating vote in a later blog) that will also take Brits to the polls this year.

What impact will Blair's re-election have on 2008? A big one.

Bush will rely on Blair throughout his second term to stand with him and deliver the message on the War in Iraq that he (Bush) sometimes has trouble articulating effectively. And 2008 will be as much of a referendum on that conflict and the greater War on Terror, as the 2004 election was.

Simply put, Blair's oratory skills in defending US foreign policy will be a boost to the Republican effort to retain the White House in 2008.