The A-Factor in CA

Today would have been Ronald Reagan's 94th birthday ... so in tribute, let's talk California politics.

California was Reagan Country ... and while there have been Republican Governors since Reagan, the Golden State has moved slowly but surely over to the Democrats. In recent history, both branches of the State legislature have moved firmly into the D-camp, Gore won the state easily in 2000, and in 2002 every statewide office went Democrat.

Then along came Arnold.

Gov. Davis' poor leadership caught up with him and Arnold breathed new life into the California Republican Party. Republicans picked up a modest two State Assembly seats in November's elections and while Bush lost the state, he did better than expected after spending virtually no time or money in the Golden State.

And now another California Democrat has met the Davis fate and stepped down in shame - California Secretary of State Kevin Shelley resigned Friday amid corruption allegations and FBI probes.

California Democrats are not immune to the national trend ... they too are on the ropes.

To be fair though Arnold's numbers have taken a modest hit in recent months. Dems and Independents aren't as smitten with him as they once were ... although his approval rating is still in the 60% range. And as the Sacramento Bee wrote today, Arnold biggest Achilles heel might be over-exposure at the hands of a star-stricken media corps.

But still, with Arnold at the top of the ticket in 2006, Republicans have reason to be optimistic. They'll have a strong list of down-ticket candidates, with State Senator Tom McClintock running for Lt. Governor (he rose to national prominence during the recall with his knowledge of and plain speak about the state of the State's finances) and other returning candidates like Bill Simon and Gary Mendoza (a rising Latino star in CA Republican politics).

A strong showing by Republicans in '06 (perhaps picking up 3, even 4, statewide offices) will put California and its 55 electoral votes squarely in play in 2008. If Hillary and the Dems lose California, they lose the White House. Period.

So while the attempts to allow a foreign-born American to run for President will not effect Arnold (it's a five or six year process to change the US Constitution), Arnold could still play a significant role on the national stage.

And don't doubt that Arnold and his handlers don't know this.